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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists


Just to be quite, quite clear: immortality is to biology as perpetual motion is to physics.


This is nothing but your opinion with absolutely no science given to back it up. Perpetual motion is simply proven by the laws of physics, no such evidence exists for biological immortality.

I would likely agree that either engineering a human or altering one such that it becomes biologically immortal after that point is likely either ridiculously difficult or impossible, however that isn't what anyone is talking about.

What is being discussed among scientists is periodically, say every 10 years using various methods to revert by 10 years the effects of aging, as long as you maintained this then you have in effect achieved biological immortality yet well within the realms of scientific possibility.

Now if you disagree with this which I'm guessing you do then please explain with logical arguments and science rather than just stating an opinion and calling everyone cranks. It is worth noting that there is an unclaimed $20,000 prize for anyone that can do this, which should tell you that it isn't a completely unfounded idea.
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

That argument is flawed: there are prizes going for all sorts of crazy things.

Anti-aging and immortality is a perfect breeding ground for quackery. Everyone is getting older, and many people view the coming of old age with fear (perhaps with cause). This particular case of idiocy is harder to refute than most because a) it is mostly based on unrealistic extrapolations from real science and b) it doesn't claim to have any firm answers yet.

Perhaps I can refer you to a "Position Statement on Human Aging" (Olshansky et al. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci.2002; 57: 292-297.) which argues the opposing view far better than I ever could.

Then, getting to the root of the problem, we have Do You Want to Live Forever? and Against Transcendence. It really doesn't get more damning than that. de Grey isn't even working in the field.

I could go on, and on, and on, but is there really any point? The truth is readily available for anyone who cares to get their science the peer reviewed way, and I doubt that I have the powers of persuasion needed to lever the truly dogmatic out of their rut.
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

That argument is flawed: there are prizes going for all sorts of crazy things.

Anti-aging and immortality is a perfect breeding ground for quackery. Everyone is getting older, and many people view the coming of old age with fear (perhaps with cause). This particular case of idiocy is harder to refute than most because a) it is mostly based on unrealistic extrapolations from real science and b) it doesn't claim to have any firm answers yet.


Neither of those points are enough to call it idiocy, no-one is arguing that it is possible now and may not be possible for a long time, but is that reason to dismiss it entirely without actually looking into it? If humans had done that for all of history then we would still be living in caves.

For example:

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.

— Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895."

So obviously there was no point spending any time trying to do it, oh wait of course there was.
The fact that these theories extrapolate from as you put it "real science" without any glaringly obvious shortcomings should give them enough merit to be investigated, now they may prove right or they may prove wrong, but to simply say "it can't be done" and not look any further is both arrogant and foolish.


Perhaps I can refer you to a "Position Statement on Human Aging" (Olshansky et al. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci.2002; 57: 292-297.) which argues the opposing view far better than I ever could.


I have read this article and others regarding Olshansky/de Grey, this one is much more an article about the current state and against so called "anti-aging" products sold by unscrupulous people today than what the future may hold. The general impression I get from this and other pieces is that the main disagreement between Olshansky and de Grey is on mainly timeframes and secondly complexity, not on whether it is actually possible.


Then, getting to the root of the problem, we have Do You Want to Live Forever? and Against Transcendence. It really doesn't get more damning than that. de Grey isn't even working in the field.

I could go on, and on, and on, but is there really any point? The truth is readily available for anyone who cares to get their science the peer reviewed way, and I doubt that I have the powers of persuasion needed to lever the truly dogmatic out of their rut.


Those two articles don't really deserve a comment to be honest, the article by Nuland is really just his opinions on the character of de Grey and his personal views on the ethics of the work, it makes no real arguments whatsover about the science. The editorial by Pontin is much of the same, both Nuland and Pontin have made it clear that they think everyone must get old and die and it is morally wrong to attempt to intervene, their writing just tries to push this view rather than actually debate any science behind the topic and thus is not a good argument to use against the science.

At this point it is probably best however to agree to disagree on the subject.
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Former Member at Mar 1, 2006 3:50:49 PM]
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

Just one more article I came across: I found this article to be particularly illuminating, and to express my viewpoint with clarity, as well as representing the majority scientific opinion.

The science will undoubtedly be done, but not by rabble-rousers like de Grey. He seems to be succeeding in turning a non-topic into tabloid-worthy junk science :-(
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

People living forever?? If this were to ever happen, I wouldn't want to be around to see it. It would be inevitable that we would have governments like no government I want to live under, maybe including death camps. Governments would, of necessity, engage in serious social engineering at the cost of many personal freedoms -- including reproductive rights. And it makes me think of the old movie "Soylent Geen" (with Charlton Heston??) in which the bodies of people who were terminated were used to make food for the masses. Let me put science aside and make a few comments about this:

1. <sigh> Well ... there goes social security! crying Seriously, there couldn't be any form of retirement for the average person; wealthy people could quit working for as long as their personal wealth would sustain them, but the rest of us poor slobs would face an eternity of work -- not that that's bad, necessarily. Depends on whether you like what you're doing, and that brings me to my next point.

2. Trash collectors and migrant workers will be making as much money as doctors -- except for maybe proctologists. biggrin We'll still need doctors for broken bones, hemmoroids, etc., but there would be a severely diminished need for doctors relative to the size of our population. In addition, huge numbers of people would want to go back to school to qualify for the "easy life"; when a person is facing a future of even just hundreds of years of remaining life, it becomes a lot more practical to return to school even if they are in their fifties or sixties. The person who couldn't go to college in his/her younger years because of circumstances, or who goofed around and flunked out, would have a heck of an incentive to return. Eventually over half the population would be walking around with degrees in medicine, or law, or engineering, or accounting, etc.; even a less intelligent person, given eternity, is going to be able to evetually graduate, even it they could manage only a single course per semester. While it might not actually reach the point that trash collectors and migrant workers would be making more than doctors, I think earnings across the board would be determined to a great extent by how undesirable a job is -- unless the government steps in and decides who is going to do what, and how much they'll be paid. Sounds like a communiist government to me.

3. Governments would have only two choices: either severely limit who will live forever, selecting only the most productive, or gifted and talented; or select people for elimination unless they can either force or convince people to quit reproducing. But assuming that childen will at least mature to adults, people will want to have more children -- and limiting that to just replacing people who die accidentally won't be enough. I can't imagine living in a childless world, and wouldn't want to. I think most young people facing eternal life will insist on having their own children, even if that means pressuring the government to eliminate a certain number of undersireable folks to make room. We could start with the criminals, and mentally retarded, and anyone else we can't 'fix' -- maybe quadroplegics, etc. Then we can put a limit on how old a person can get, or maybe just use a lottery. But I don't want to see that.

4. If the government doesn't terminate criminals, what about folks who are sentenced to life without parole? Wouldn't it turn out to be more humane to execute someone than to keep them incarcerated for eternity? Well, we just wouldn't give them the treatment -- but, in a sense, isn't that a death sentence, too?

5. Finally, I saved my best reason for last. I don't believe this is part of God's plan, so He isn't going to let it happen; I believe in Heaven and in Hell (sorry Nelsoc, but if you change that to "Heck", I'm gonna come looking for you). biggrin And if mankind is ever able to achieve eternal life, that's going to cause a crisis in faith for most people: after all, if we live forever, why do we need to believe in God? We ARE God.

Cheers.

Bill Velek
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Dreamshaper
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

you touched on most of the issues I alluded too when I asked if we would/could/should allow ourselves to achieve immortality.

A few issues come to mind that mitigate some of the "growing pains" as the world transits to an immortal population:

1) In general terms, social security will be unnecessary as we won't need to retire. We aren't looking to enjoy the "twlight years" of our life because we won't have any. Sure, I'd love to put in 30 or 40 years at work and then spend eternity (still in my prime!) being provided for, but if living an extremely long, healthy life means keeping a job, sounds like a fair trade to me.

2) Other than geriatrics (and obstetrics, more on that later), people will still keep getting sick; we'll still need the medical profession. As a race, we'll always have better recovery rates from what ails us because we're at the peak of health, but unless death is *the* last cure that science provides, then doctors will still be around and will only gradually have to find other work as their respective fields *gradually* become anachronistic.

3) Other jobs will continue as they do now: unpleasant jobs will command higher rates of pay, everyone tries to earn more than their neighbours, trends in employment, hiring, firing and rates of pay will continue to be variable yet somewhat cyclical. Even if everyone has PhD's, we'll still need trash collectors, it will still be an unpleasant job and they'll still make more money than they would if they were handling roses in bloom. We can't all be researchers and university professors so some of us will still have our regular jobs. Our PhD's will make us overqualified for those jobs, but not as overqualified as the PhD's that got the better jobs. In short, nothing will change in the larger scheme of things, at least in that respect.

4) If I'm not mistaken, Western civilisation is in a general population decline. It is perhaps exaggerated by the Boomers entering their golden years, but the trend is real nonetheless. Most of the western world has a population growth only due to immigration from other (largely third world) countries. These countries themselves, while still having rapidly expanding populations, are seeing a slowing of those growth rates that project to a stable population a few generations from now (last projection I heard was a peak population of 8-9 billion). If not for the prospect of immortality, the world might, in a few centuries time, face a noticeable decline in population (which would likely be a good thing, but that's another thread). My point is that, relative to the overpopulation problems we already have, immortality might not add significantly, at least at first.

5) Imprisonment wil vary by country as it does now. Many "life" sentences still allow for parole, which all but the most predatory would earn. Those sentences that do not allow for parole would likely be thrown out as "cruel and unusual", at least after a certain amount of time served. It is a matter that will need to be addressed, but not one that affects the bigger picture. Many would argue that eternal life w/o parole is fitting for some criminals, others would not. We already argue about this in our respective countries, and even the most hardline among the democratic countries abhor the criminal justice systems of certain other countries...immortality just adds another log to the fires.

6) As far as God's plan, I'm not Him/Her/It, I don't pretend to know. I could argue that immortality is part of the Plan. If your Supreme being is a parental figure, then achieving immortality might be akin to growing up to be like Father/Mother. Perhaps not. Like most other religious issues, I would expect the choice to be up to the individual. I have no personal issues with the concept of physical immortality, but would respect someone else's wish to die of natural causes. I wonder though, where a spiritual person draws the line. We already live longer thanks to science, due to nutrition, hygiene, medical treatment, etc. Why would this be different; why would you failing to avail yourself of the opportunity to spend many, many more years of enjoying your Creator's world be wrong? God (or whomever) still can take you when it's your time. Besides, as you pointed out: if it's not meant to be, it won't be. What then does a spiritual person make of the fact if it *does* come true? A sign to jump on the bandwagon? Or test one passes by resisting the temptation? That's just my take, I mean no disrespect nor do I think the decision is necessarily easy.

That's enough for now, I haven't added my 2 cents for the downside of an immortal race, just wanted to point out that some of the negatives may not be as bad (if they're at all bad) as they might seem.

Cheers.
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O God, I could be bounded in a nutshell and count myself a king of infinite space, were it not that I have bad dreams. (Hamlet)"
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Dreamshaper at Mar 5, 2006 3:17:20 AM]
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

Making the leap from this to immortality is so stupid it beggars belief - and would severely embarrass the scientists actually working on such problems.

Why are all the crazies coming out of the woodwork today?

Just to be quite, quite clear: immortality is to biology as perpetual motion is to physics.
When I see a letter from a 200 year old scientist --- I will believe it.

When bodies frozen after death can pay for it later after they thaw out --- I will believe it.
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

i support the idea of viewing aging as a 'disease'. even if not accurate by some definitions, it does fit others.

for example prostate cancer is a disease, but in most cases it is so slow-growing that the victim dies a long time before the cancer kills him.

still, there is no need to argue about words. we know what the idea is.
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

I caught the end of a program on BBC4 (TV) earlier, featuring De Grey. If I thought he was wrong before, now I know he's certifiable. In a different age, he would self-publish his book and moulder away without attracting much attention. In our current media circus, he can get all the attention he wants - particularly with such an attractive hook.

Aging is not a disease. It is merely part of life. We live, we die. The entirety of life as we know it is based on this cycle. Certainly, old age makes us vulnerable to disease, and there are conditions which only manifest in old age. We should do everything possible to alleviate these. Of course we should. It barely requires thought.

What De Grey proposes is a pipe-dream. A collection of ideas, with a pretty coating of misinformation. Calling aging a disease makes it sound like curing it is possible - indeed, mandatory. But it's not a disease, and the "cure" he proposes doesn't hold water. He talks so much nonsense that it is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. There is a lot of chaff, and very little wheat. When you examine the substance, you find most of the "science" is science fiction, and the remaining science is misapplied.

Our current efforts should be to increase life-expectancy. This we can do, particularly in developing countries.
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Re: Official Open Anti Aging Letter Created By Distinguished Scientists

Didactylos why act the shill for this thread?

Let it die a death so we may be done with it.
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