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World Community Grid Forums
Category: Active Research
Forum: Mapping Cancer Markers Forum
Thread: MCM Progress Reports |
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ThreadRipper
Veteran Cruncher Sweden Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 1322 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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So, perhaps plotting the change in currently projected completion date as a function of calendar time? If I'm not mistaken. So that the plot would have a straight horizontal line in case the project is "in-phase" with calendar time, and turn downwards/upwards in case we are accelerating/decelerating towards the currently projected end date. Ok, I think this what you mean. You can clearly see where I changed the number of potential work units as the graph abruptly changes the potential end date. Lets see if it re-stabilizes somewhere on that upper level.  Cheers Yes, yes, yes, thank you very much! :)  Very interesting plot, and now one can see/notice where and how the project accelerated/accelerates/decelerated/decelerates. Awesome! <3 Just a thing that came to my mind just now, what do you think about putting a straight horizontal line where the current date is? As time goes by that line will move upwards and closing in to the currently projected end date? I don't know, it's just something that came to mind now at 2am :) Once again, thank you for taking your time to make that plot graph, and as always for your great progress updates!  Join The International Team: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/team/viewTeamInfo.do?teamId=CK9RP1BKX1 AMD TR2990WX @ PBO, 64GB Quad 3200MHz 14-17-17-17-1T, RX6900XT @ Stock AMD 3800X @ PBO AMD 2700X @ 4GHz |
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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7697 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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I see the percentage complete on the research page is once again regressing. It had been at 60% for a while, then it was at 59% for the last several days, now I see it is at 58%. This leads me to believe the researchers are adding new work units faster than we are processing them. It might be even the researchers do not have a good handle on the ultimate number of work units they need processed. If we are lucky they may be able to give us a ballpark figure, but that is entirely up to them.
----------------------------------------Cheers
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers* |
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KLiK
Master Cruncher Croatia Joined: Nov 13, 2006 Post Count: 3108 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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@flodisar
----------------------------------------Check ECD here, for several projects: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/forums/wcg/viewpostinthread?post=555203 At least until graphs change. I also keep a track of this topic, to see how accurate are my calcs against WCG & those of Sgt.Joe. ;) |
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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7697 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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I have recently learned the following information from WCG and still believe there is no calculable end date. However I will still attempt to track the progress as it occurs. A big thanks to the WCG staff for making this available. I have decided to leave the original quote in for the time being as it still addresses the question of additional work. In the recent past an additional estimate of 4000 more batches were added.
----------------------------------------Recently another estimated 5,000 batches were added to the project. We are not able to say the exact number of additional batches that will be added in the future, but we are fully expecting to receive more work units for the Mapping Cancer Markers project. The researchers will turn to other cancer-type work units when the current ones near completion. Last 30 day average results:530,706 Percentage Complete:Currently listed on the Research page:56%(down 4% from 2 weeks ago). I have adjusted my figures once again to be somewhat in sysnc with the research page. I am estimating there has been an addition of 2500 batches for each of the past weeks for a total of an additional 5000 batches. The average length of a WU is currently running about 4.15 hours, slightly shorter than the last time I posted, but continuing to trend steady at around the 4 to 4.2 hour mark consistently. The average length of a work unit this past week varied between 4.05 and 4.15 hours. This continues to be remarkably steady. Still have not seen any of the batches from 122278 to 122402. The ovarian units started with 122403 as the lowest number.My latest batch number was 138374 which would give about 158 batches for the week. The batch count for last week was 155. Production decreased this past week going from about 3.25 million WU's to 3.23 million WU's completed. During this past week the time devoted to MCM1 was just slightly over an average of 216 years per day, down from the past week's 219. Originally we had 17,500 batches. My current estimate for the number of batches is 68,000. I have virtually given up trying to track the changes as when the researchers are adding them. As of today(November 26) we have processed 767,322,469 units. This would be about 56.4% of the known work units. Based on the 30 day running average the current work units should last to about June to July of 2020. When looking this far into the future the crystal ball gets very hazy. This not an end of project projection, just a projection of a probable end of the current (maybe) known work units. I am trying to calculate a couple of different ways to try to get some figures which converge to about the same. At any rate, there should be a couple of years left to crunch on this project.    Cheers
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers* |
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ThreadRipper
Veteran Cruncher Sweden Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 1322 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Thanks as always Sgt.Joe! :)
----------------------------------------Join The International Team: https://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/team/viewTeamInfo.do?teamId=CK9RP1BKX1 AMD TR2990WX @ PBO, 64GB Quad 3200MHz 14-17-17-17-1T, RX6900XT @ Stock AMD 3800X @ PBO AMD 2700X @ 4GHz |
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[SG-FC]Hammerburg
Senior Cruncher Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 251 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Thank you again Sgt. Joe!
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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7697 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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I have recently learned the following information from WCG and still believe there is no calculable end date. However I will still attempt to track the progress as it occurs. A big thanks to the WCG staff for making this available. I have decided to leave the original quote in for the time being as it still addresses the question of additional work.
----------------------------------------Recently another estimated 5,000 batches were added to the project. We are not able to say the exact number of additional batches that will be added in the future, but we are fully expecting to receive more work units for the Mapping Cancer Markers project. The researchers will turn to other cancer-type work units when the current ones near completion. Last 30 day average results:505,357 Percentage Complete:Currently listed on the Research page:55%(down 1% from 1 weeks ago). I have adjusted my figures once again to be somewhat in sync with the research page. I am estimating there has been an addition of 2000 batches in the past week for a total of 70,000 batches currently. The average length of a WU is currently running about 4.02 hours, slightly shorter than the last time I posted, but continuing to trend steady at around the 4 to 4.2 hour mark consistently. The average length of a work unit this past week varied between 4.02 and 4.18 hours. This continues to be remarkably steady. Still have not seen any of the batches from 122278 to 122402. The ovarian units started with 122403 as the lowest number.My latest batch number was 138550 which would give about 176 batches for the week. The batch count for last week was 158. Production increased this past week going from about 3.23 million WU's to 3.46 million WU's completed. During this past week the time devoted to MCM1 was just slightly over an average of 232 years per day, up from the past week's 216. Originally we had 17,500 batches. My current estimate for the number of batches is 70,000. I have virtually given up trying to track the changes as when the researchers are adding them. As of today(December 3) we have processed 770,780,632 units. This would be about 55% of the known work units. Based on the 30 day running average the current work units should last to about April to May of 2021. When looking this far into the future the crystal ball gets very hazy. This not an end of project projection, just a projection of a probable end of the current (maybe) known work units. I am trying to calculate a couple of different ways to try to get some figures which converge to about the same. At any rate, there should be about 3.5 years left to crunch on this project.   Cheers
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers* |
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dumicat
Cruncher Limburg, Belgium Joined: Jun 25, 2014 Post Count: 44 Status: Offline Project Badges: 
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Sapphire for me now ;o))
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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7697 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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I have recently learned the following information from WCG and still believe there is no calculable end date. However I will still attempt to track the progress as it occurs. A big thanks to the WCG staff for making this available. I have decided to leave the original quote in for the time being as it still addresses the question of additional work.
----------------------------------------Recently another estimated 5,000 batches were added to the project. We are not able to say the exact number of additional batches that will be added in the future, but we are fully expecting to receive more work units for the Mapping Cancer Markers project. The researchers will turn to other cancer-type work units when the current ones near completion. Last 30 day average results:483,476Percentage Complete:Currently listed on the Research page:55%(Same as from 1 week ago). I have adjusted my figures to an estimated total of 70,000 batches currently. The average length of a WU is currently running about 4.19 hours, slightly longer than the last time I posted, but continuing to trend steady at around the 4 to 4.2 hour mark consistently. The average length of a work unit this past week varied between 4.07 and 4.19 hours. This continues to be remarkably steady. Still have not seen any of the batches from 122278 to 122402. The ovarian units started with 122403 as the lowest number.My latest batch number was 138709 which would give about 159 batches for the week. The batch count for last week was 176. Production decreased this past week going from about 3.46 million WU's to 3.22 million WU's completed. During this past week the time devoted to MCM1 was just slightly over an average of 217 years per day, down from the past week's 232. Originally we had 17,500 batches. My current estimate for the number of batches is 70,000. I have virtually given up trying to track the changes as to when the researchers are adding them. As of today(December 10) we have processed 774,004,450 units. This would be about 55% of the known work units. Based on the 30 day running average the current work units should last to about June to July of 2021. When looking this far into the future the crystal ball gets very hazy. This not an end of project projection, just a projection of a probable end of the current (maybe) known work units. I am trying to calculate a couple of different ways to try to get some figures which converge to about the same. At any rate, there should be about 3.5 years left to crunch on this project at the present rate.   Cheers Edit:The second chart should be labeled with 1.4 Billion Work units.
Sgt. Joe
----------------------------------------*Minnesota Crunchers* [Edit 1 times, last edit by Sgt.Joe at Dec 11, 2017 7:38:37 PM] |
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[SG-FC]Hammerburg
Senior Cruncher Joined: Apr 26, 2007 Post Count: 251 Status: Offline Project Badges:
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Thank you again Sgt. Joe!
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