For those who're interested to read more on the latest fav of "they got the Atlantic Hurricane predictions wrong, therefore it's all wrong, [by implication], us puny humans can't possibly do this" (well the door is ajar on CO2 per the main driver of this thread), here a Wiki page on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Interestingly per Dr. Ryan Maue, PhD, the total Northern Hemisphere ACE, as written on August 17, the value is 4:
No hurricanes on day X, and 1 on day Y, is semantical hair splitting.

The outlook for Irene is to seriously make up for the ACE shortfall. Going by the insurers actuaries that what's coming will need for the premiums to be upped. Of course, insuring is done in the west, others co-paying for inaction. The furthest majority in this world can't insure anything.

No food for thought to all!

--//--

P.S. David Autumns, please don't conveniently miss this item on Maue's page: We never stop to learn... it's though amazing don't you think that theorists came up with the Atom Bomb, and when they build it, in a hurry, the hecks machine actually did. We've known for longer the influence of Pacific ENSO, dust distribution from the Sahara and many other influences. It's not important when they come... it's important to be ready when they come. Friends of mine in Galveston and Houston now know what the powers are of what was thought to be an H2 (Ike) at landfall time The DDDT project of WCG was substantially delayed because of the disaster! Indeed, and exactly, more respite for the Ain't True. Meantime someone will make a profit out of the event... guess who: http://article.wn.com/view/2011/08/25/Oil_ris...ads_for_the_East_Coast_6/

That is really inconvenient.

Hey, Jah, GeraldRube, yes all 3 Arctic routes are now open. The Russian side had already opened in late June, earliest ever [seeway up in this thread], and with Suez-sized tankers now going up and down, it's open-open. Those can't go near the coast under full load as it's rather shallow there i.e. substantial seaice retreat is needed before they can ferry up and down the Far East Asia and Western Europe. The sea-bottom there is perma-frosted, still, and is thought to hold back trillions of tonnes of methane, a prox.23 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It's that infamous clathrate gun, which is thought to have caused mass extinctions in the long past.

~~~~

Cryosphere Today updated their data just hours ago, revising the remaining ice down by 77,284 kilometers square. Think these [relevant] facts belie the statement that there was no warming in the 21st century, nor that there were 3 good years between 2007 and 2011. Is that proper phrased English?



The above chart now shows average sea ice anomaly through August 24. The lower right 2 red values both increased by 4K, meaning for every day of the year, since the January 1, 2011, respectively Jan 1.2007. The melt season is not over yet.

As for model critiquing, it's interesting inconsistent, to happily trot out the ACE chart as perfectly acceptable model based presentation, and not accept the model underlying the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume, though many in situ samplings are being taken continuously, including by the autonomous O and U-Buoys... they all say that the current mean ice is under 1 meter thick (Healy, Polarstern, St Louis of St Lawrence to name a few ships, testing out there). At 5 million km square remaining, how many cubic Km would that equate to according to the average abacus proficient?



Merchants of Doubt I've never understood and properly never will. Think they might be in angst for the fish mongerer too... anything that disturbs the Heile Welt.

From the "Food For Thought" department... have a good evening.

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P.S. In case missed, the top of above 2 charts also has 1 sigma standard deviation bars. Look close if 2008-2010 fell inside or outside that ''good/normal'' and then extend the view to the left and up as how it was. We're now 2011 and all previous cries of recovery, as late as sometime October last year with "half way minimum and maximum" (a weather report). Think we'll be seeing more Green-land on Greenland in the coming years... lots more than the Vikings ever saw. Further south, say Texas latitudes, there lots more dust bowl, and at least 5.2 billion USD of economic damage, mostly to crops for food. There's a town there, that supposedly now has recorded 70 days of consecutive 100F and above. Not seen the name as yet. Lucky for them that air-conditionings are the normal for peoples houses. Here they're not and went over yesterday to an 84 year old gentleman's house to set up 2 standard tripod fans. One pointing in at a window on the shaded side and one pointing out at another window on the other side of the place, to get some air circulation. He was elated for 60 Euros, for the 2 fans that is.

ty dave

Only because you asked and it's in a genuine spirit of helpfulness as I know English is not your first language: First, use properly, second, only a misplaced modifier. Square should come before km. You write English better than a large portion of native writers. Certainly better than I write (or speak) Spanish, and I have zero proficiency in Italian.

As for the conversation thus far, David, the children of the Earth do have a future, but it won't be the same as the present. I'd like to attempt to bring logic and reason into a conversation where such things are dismissed out of hand. We are rapidly re-releasing much of the carbon that has been sequestered deep within the earth since the time of the early Paleozoic age. At that time, Antartica was a lush jungle and most of North America was shallow lake. This goes far beyond simple natural variation. The atmosphere is a dynamic creature and does indeed respond to changes in its chemical makeup.

One need merely look at the influence of one small geologic event to see how much change can be affected from chemistry imbalances. Track the global temperatures after any volcanic eruption. Krakatoa was a pretty big one and it caused winter to last over 15 months in the northern hemisphere. Even smaller eruptions such as Mt. St. Helens have made noticeable impacts. When something so insignificant as a belching mountain precipitate such impressive global variations, it's beyond asinine to suggest that all of human activity since the dawn of the industrial age has had zero effect.

Yes, some people do use scare tactics. That's an unfortunate side-effect of politics. I assure you neither side in this "debate" is innocent of that charge. However, science marches on. The true scientists will tell you that we don't really have a clue how complex the entire system is and the results may very well be unexpected, but they do agree that there is no realistic statistical chance that we are not effecting the climate and global temperatures.

The oceans have done an amazing job up to this point absorbing excess carbon. They have this ability because of buffering chemicals present therin. This is also a limited resource. As the acidity of the ocean decreases, crustaceans will have a harder time removing the calcium from seawater that is necessary to continue buffering the pH. The thawing of the permafrost is another potential tipping point. Whether we understand the process or not is irrelevant if we force beyond one of these tipping points and initiate yet another period of mass extinction.

Humanity will go on. We're adaptable enough to manage that much, but the future will not be something with which we are familiar.

In other news

TGT has been installed in it's new improved 2U Rack

It consumes 120W at the socket 10 of which go to the fans. It will be running with the CPU, Mobo and Memory in the lowest box in my sig with it's Antec Earthwatts PSU (It fits )

The POC is nearly complete




Not long now until we have a Solar Year average temperature updated hourly

One that is claimed through the IPCC Fora that we can choose and control whether it increases by 1.5C or 2C or in the worst case by 6C just through changing our CO2 emissions over the next 40 years

If you think I make this stuff up see here

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/ju...-figueres-climate-2c-rise

I expect it to be much the same up a little bit down a little bit year by year natural variation

Dave