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Sgt.Joe
Ace Cruncher USA Joined: Jul 4, 2006 Post Count: 7694 Status: Recently Active Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
one last question though! How do you go from being listed as a cruncher such as myself to advanced or senior or veteran cruncher? That is determined not by your crunching numbers but by the number of posts you initiate.
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers* |
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Mathon
Cruncher Joined: Apr 2, 2006 Post Count: 12 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
I am hoping to get a gold badge here, hope I can make it!
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
So you received a WU from batch number 2226 today, but there are 241 more batches still to go until batch number 2467. Since HCMD2 re-started a month ago, my own records say that we've been averaging about 4 batches per day. 241 / 4 = 60.25 days based on your average. Sekerob's chart says 31 days. I hope your average is the more accurate number as I want to get my sapphire badge. :) |
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KWSN - A Shrubbery
Master Cruncher Joined: Jan 8, 2006 Post Count: 1585 Status: Offline |
Parents for 2233 are in the wild now. I don't know the long-term average, but that's 7 in slightly over 24 hours. Bear in mind the batch difficulties are not consistent and this project is tremendously difficult to predict.
----------------------------------------I trust Sekerob's guess to be accurate enough for when the last parents leave the servers. The amount of children/grandchildren/great-grandchildren/great-great, etc that are sent after that is anybody's guess. Then there are the repairs/inconclusives/errors... In short, if you're desperate for the next badge level, don't give up hope until it's all over. ![]() Distributed computing volunteer since September 27, 2000 |
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
My comment "averaging about 4 batches per day" is purely from my own observations. For example, on 25 Nov soon after the project re-start, parent batch 2107 was reported, and now on 27 Dec we have parent batch 2233 reported, a throughput of 126 batches. Between those two there are 32 days, so this simple calculation gives 3.93 batches per day. I've been noting the most recent parent batch numbers daily around 8am GMT when reported or downloaded by me, and a linear trend line through those gives 4.05 per day at present. There are daily variations around that line, such as your "7 in slightly over 24 hours", but a linear trend looks reasonable overall so far.
It's a fair comment by spingadus[MM] that a continuation of that trend gives 60 days (from yesterday) of more parents. However, we're not taking the varying size of each batch into account (the "number of positions" in the researchers' chart), although by eye the future average size seems similar to that of the past month; nor the varying difficulty of calculating those positions; nor changing behaviour by crunchers - will more jump on board even now to catch a badge, or do more leave having achieved a badge? I'll be interested to hear whether SekeRob has used any additional information and/or past experience of project completions to refine his own estimate! |
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cjslman
Master Cruncher Mexico Joined: Nov 23, 2004 Post Count: 2082 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Just as Tony comments about the difficulty in estimating the remaining time... this morning, Sekerob's dashboard is showing 58 days (yesterday it was 30) !!! Also, once I get my gold badge, I'll be one of those that will be jumping ship to chase after other milestones with other projects.
----------------------------------------Currently crunching: Parents: 2225, 2230 Children: 2202, 2225, 2228, 2229 Grandchildren: 2177, 2214 CJSL |
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TXR13
Cruncher Canada Joined: Dec 5, 2005 Post Count: 36 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Just as Tony comments about the difficulty in estimating the remaining time... this morning, Sekerob's dashboard is showing 58 days (yesterday it was 30) !!! I was wondering when that was going to clear up. I was looking at the percentage advance per day, and running some numbers... At 0.15% per day, there was no way we could complete the remaining 10.78% in 30 days. Even now, those numbers say we should be looking at closer to 70 days remaining. Of course, I don't have as clear a view as Sekerob does, and there's lots of slop as people jump on the bandwagon to clear the project and grab any remaining badges. Still, I figured we had way more than 30 days remaining, so the apparent "jump" on the dashboard didn't take me by surprise. ![]() |
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Former Member
Cruncher Joined: May 22, 2018 Post Count: 0 Status: Offline |
My most recent downloads: parent for batch 2236, children for batches 2196, 2230.
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cjslman
Master Cruncher Mexico Joined: Nov 23, 2004 Post Count: 2082 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Sekerob's dashboard this morning is now showing 59 days left (0.13% per day) and the latest that I have crunched was a 2233 parent.
----------------------------------------Gotta keep crunching.... CJSL PS: Just to let you know I finally made it to gold (which is more than I had hoped for). I will be moving off this project and pursuing other badges on other projects. Lots of luck to everybody in reaching your milestones. ---------------------------------------- [Edit 1 times, last edit by cjslman at Dec 30, 2011 1:45:50 PM] |
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rewood1000
Cruncher USA Joined: Apr 25, 2011 Post Count: 48 Status: Offline Project Badges: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Well, this is my very first post since joining. I have just 35 crunching days left to get my ruby for HCMD2 and since I am averaging 3 crunch day per calendar day, I thought it wouldn't be a problem.
However, in the space of this evening I received parents for 2233, then 2237, then 2240, then 2251, and last 2253. With this kind of numbers jump, my 12 calendar race for the ruby could be a near run thing. Anyone else getting parents in the 2250's? |
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