You'll do fine. If you're getting parents for 2233-2240 they must be re-sends as the 2244 were going out a couple days ago. Expect the parents (225x) to stop shortly and we'll see a bunch of children/grandchildren for the next couple days or more.

10 days ago, KWSN - A Shrubbery reported #2207 parents being sent out. I received a #2257 right now, so it's 50 positions within 10 days, 5 per day. 210 left, so that's 42 days at current pace for all the parents. Don't forget that there will be children and grandchildren WUs for quite some time after the last parent WU has been sent out.

Regards,
Martin

I've gotten several 2263 now. My new hypothesis is that they're just trying to make all our predictions and estimates look bad.

In other words... the techs are purposely messing with us.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

@KWSN - A ShrubberyOf course . Just to prove you're right, I've downloaded nothing except grandchildren WUs since your post, with batch numbers ranging from 2201 to 2233.
@doug_sanchez I'm not sure that the batch size explains why the parent batches yesterday and today progressed so rapidly compared with those from the month up to now, since say batch 2107. It would be nice to have a table with the numbers of positions to calculate, not just the chart.

I think they were only catching up and preparing material for later child and grand-child WUs.

Between my latest report above and the previous one there have been 15 days and (according to them) the progress is as follows:
- parents: 69 batch numbers, or 4.6 batch numbers/day
- children: 51 batch numbers, or 3.4 batch numbers/day
- grand-children: 57 batch numbers, or 3.8 batch numbers/day
- oldest grand-children in process: 68 batch numbers, or 4.5 batch numbers/day.

So, the rough estimate of 5 batches per day is still conservative (from a badge hunting viewpoint ) and using it that gives at least:
- 41 days until receiving parents for batch 2467
- 46 days until receiving children for batch 2467
- 47 days until receiving grand-children for batch 2467
- and probably 56 days for clearing everything.

And as a matter of fact, that matches SekeRob's estimate.

Also, remember that the techs are usually posting a warning about 30 days before their estimated end of distribution.

@doug sanchez
The chart allows you to estimate the number of positions rather closely, particularly precisely enough if you remember that the number of positions is a weak information, knowing that the CPU time needed to compute one position is extremely variable.