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Dataman
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers


From my perspective this situation will get worse before it gets better, notwithstanding the $700G (that is "G" as in Giga, meaning billion) bailout currently proposed by the U.S. government. There are so many problems with the proposal that it is hard to enumerate them.
1. Nobody knows where the figure came from. Guessed at is probably how. The claim is that no one knows how to set a value on the bad mortgage securities, so how do we know how much money will be needed to buy them from the banks which invested in them ?
2. Who is going to make the decision on how to spend this money ?
3. Our government is already operating at a deficit, that is, it must already borrow money, so it then must enter the worldwide credit market and borrow this bailout money.
4. If it does not borrow this money, then it will only be printing money to cover it and I don't have to tell anyone how inflationary that is.
5. There is no provision for any executive pay caps for any bank or financial institution which gets some of this government handout.
6. There is no provision for any type of mortgage holiday or mortgage restructuring.
7. One of the causes of this whole mess is that housing values have fallen. The banks engaged in in shoddy or non existent criteria for granting mortgages, causing excessive demand for housing and driving housing valuations to unsustainable levels for anyone with a middle class income stream. Everyone knows that values can not go up indefinitely, especially at the rates of 25 % per year. The housing values are returning to more reasonable levels dictated by demand for housing. The bailout action by the government will not cause housing values to rise. Housing values will only stabilize and then begin to rise when the supply of houses and the ability of the consumers to purchase them return to an equilibrium state.
8. The other big elephant in the room is amount of credit card debt the big banks are carrying on their books. If their delinquency rates on this debt deteriorate due to further erosion in the consumers ability to service this debt there will be further cries of woe and even more huge losses by the banks.

President Bush was just on the radio warning of a "long and painful recession" if his proposed bailout plan is not enacted quickly by Congress. If he had any guts he would have warned of the dreaded "D" word, Depression. The Congress must act quickly, but do so with the proper controls in place and the money properly targeted and there must be strong oversight. There must be provisions for the willing but unable to pay to restructure their mortgages to levels which reflect the true value of the underlying asset value of the principal domicile. There must also be an enforcement of prudent banking practices enforced by regulators who are not afraid to do their jobs.

I trust it will get better, but not real soon.

Cheers


Yep, I mostly agree. It could have been prevented but were are where we are. Actually if it had to happen ... t'was good it was in the final weeks of an election. biggrin They can't run ... can't hide. laughing We live in "interesting" times.

Crunch on in the Great North MC!! coffee
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[Sep 25, 2008 3:56:58 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
ultimaThule
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers


7. One of the causes of this whole mess is that housing values have fallen. The banks engaged in in shoddy or non existent criteria for granting mortgages, causing excessive demand for housing and driving housing valuations to unsustainable levels for anyone with a middle class income stream. I trust it will get better, but not real soon.

Cheers

It is exactly same situation here, and I know this sound weird but middle class here (another side on world) is in deep problems because those US mortgages.

1. Those who have mortgage, will pay hard interest right now.
Here in Finland 90% of all mortgages are floaters, tied to 12m €uribor. It has break of it's relevancy to minimum bit rate.
Red one is minimum bit rate and blue is market price of 12m €uribor.
This spread is because current financial crisis.
Banks do not trust each others -> lack of money -> price of money goes up -> mortgage interests will raise -> ?

Few years ago interest rate was half of what those are right now.

I but I think that ECB is doing only right thing right now, when rising minimum bit rate.
This sound cruel, but please remember what happen here when inflation get out of hand on 20's.
Inflation -> hyperinlfation -> lack of Democracy -> Nazism -> we all know.



Accumulated Points: 12,828,120
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[Sep 25, 2008 6:09:43 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Sgt.Joe
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

I can not read Finnish, but I understand the chart. Everybody likes variable(floater) interest rates in the beginning when the rate is low, but they do not think ahead that the rate may rise in later years and their income does not rise at the same rate. Then the payments get out of control. Some also bought much more house than they could afford so they were already at the breaking point even with the beginning rates. This whole mess will hurt a lot people not only in the U.S. but in many other places as well.

Cheers
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Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers*
[Sep 26, 2008 1:06:11 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
ultimaThule
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

And actually worst thing is that durig those few years, when money was cheap, prices did explode.
It is even hard to understand current price level here.

Here is examble.
Distanse to capital's down town: 60 miles, a.k.a. edge of work area.
Size: 560 squere feet.
Price: 220 000 US$
http://tinyurl.com/4etgoz

If you triple price, then you get same size from capital's downtown.
I think we might have lost generation here.


Accumulated Points: 12,876,951
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by ultimaThule at Sep 26, 2008 6:55:23 AM]
[Sep 26, 2008 6:53:19 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Sgt.Joe
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Congratulations Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have broken the 100,000,000 mark.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin
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Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers*
[Sep 26, 2008 10:48:56 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Sgt.Joe
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

And actually worst thing is that durig those few years, when money was cheap, prices did explode.
It is even hard to understand current price level here.

Here is examble.
Distanse to capital's down town: 60 miles, a.k.a. edge of work area.
Size: 560 squere feet.
Price: 220 000 US$
http://tinyurl.com/4etgoz

If you triple price, then you get same size from capital's downtown.
I think we might have lost generation here.


You were not kidding when you said prices exploded. 560 square feet is a small place. My place is 950 square feet or so which is not all that big, so I can only imagine that size. That is a whale of a lot of money for a place that size that far away from a major center.

Cheers
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*Minnesota Crunchers*
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[Edit 1 times, last edit by Sgt.Joe at Sep 26, 2008 10:56:12 AM]
[Sep 26, 2008 10:55:23 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
ultimaThule
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Congratulations Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have broken the 100,000,000 mark.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin


-= Together =-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dss4GyoUdO8


Accumulated Points: 12,904,474
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[Sep 26, 2008 2:29:21 PM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

Good work team! applause !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
biggrin Keep crunching MC!!!
[Sep 27, 2008 12:11:28 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Sgt.Joe
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Congratulations Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have broken the 100,000,000 mark.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin


-= Together =-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dss4GyoUdO8


Nice film clip, I enjoyed it.

Cheers
----------------------------------------
Sgt. Joe
*Minnesota Crunchers*
[Sep 27, 2008 1:34:08 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
Dataman
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Re: Minnesota Crunchers

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Congratulations Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have broken the 100,000,000 mark.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Woot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin biggrin




What a great job MC!!


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[Sep 27, 2008 3:47:20 AM]   Link   Report threatening or abusive post: please login first  Go to top 
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